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23 03 2017
Demographic Forecast for Berlin Predicts 4 Million Residents by 2035

A recent survey by the IW German Economic Institute shows that several major German cities currently experience fast demographic growth through incoming migration from inside and outside Germany. The IW Institute ventured predictions for the demographics of three German metropolises between now and 2035, these being Berlin, Frankfurt am Main and Munich. The demographic forecast suggests that the positive trend in these cities will continue for some time to come. Berlin, being Germany's capital and largest city, will see that strongest growth in residents. With a population growth rate of 14.5 percent, which will bring the total up to four million people by 2035, the nation's capital outperforms Munich, the Bavarian state capital. But at 14.4 percent, Munich's demographic growth does not lag far behind. For Frankfurt am Main, the researchers estimate a possible population increase by eleven percent between 2015 and 2035.

Germany’s Conurbations have Enormous Appeal

The institute believes that the runaway growth in Germany's major cities is explained primarily by the extraordinary force of attraction that conurbations have. Most attractive in the eyes of the researchers are the great prospects cities offer to a large population cohort. Young people, for example, benefit from the versatile educational and vocational infrastructure of large cities, as well as from labour markets richer in opportunity. But so-called best agers also associate the urban environments with a higher quality of living due to superior amenities, a richer variety of leisure attractions and more chances to engage in social networking. No other German town has benefited from the urbanisation trend more than Berlin. Between 2011 and 2015, Berlin's population grew at roughly 40,000 people annually. According to figures released by the Berlin-Brandenburg Statistics Office, 2015 was the first year since 1945 that the city counted more than 3.5 million residents.

Last year, its population grew by at least another 50,000 arrivals. Together with incoming migration into the suburbs, the Berlin metro region is now home to more than 6 million people.

The upward demographic trend will also have major ramifications for the housing market. There is already a considerable pent-up demand for housing construction, caused by the sluggish building activity in the recent past.